IMCO World View: Navigating a long-term strategy amid short-term volatility

Nick Chamie From shifts in climate-related momentum to a second Trump administration, global markets are experiencing considerable volatility. We sat down with Nick Chamie, Chief Strategist, Senior Managing Director, Total Portfolio and Capital Markets to share insights from the IMCO World View and understand IMCO’s approach to filtering the noise of daily headlines, managing risks and seizing opportunities with long-term resilience in mind.


Tell us about the IMCO World View and its evolution.

The IMCO World View is a dynamic, ever-evolving framework designed to analyze global shifts and identify long-term investment opportunities. Recognizing that the recent past may not be helpful in predicting the future, the report assesses structural trends and implications across key economic, geopolitical and technological areas.

This year's update focuses on monitoring the momentum of our six Themes and six Implications – determining which are accelerating, staying steady or decelerating – and how we translate those signals into actionable investment strategies. Our work reflects a commitment to remain agile, continuously reviewing and adapting our perspective as new developments arise.

Can you share some of the key trends highlighted in the latest IMCO World View?

The IMCO World View 2025 revisits our global investment themes and assesses their momentum as intensifying, holding steady or slowing down:

  • Accelerated momentum can be seen in the income inequality theme as a key driver of increasing use of interventionist policies and deglobalization in response to popular discontent with orthodox policies. Gamesmanship around tariffs as Trump settles into office is a recent example of this phenomena. 
  • Trends holding steady include policy inflection, investments in disruptive technologies that continue to propel innovation, and evolving market structures, with continued interest in private and index-based public market strategies.
  • While climate change and sustainability remain a critical focus, recent developments indicate a temporary deceleration in momentum, driven by signs of a growing green and ESG investing backlash.

What are some of the key geopolitical considerations for investors?

The political landscape and market movements work hand-in-hand. For example, following the U.S. election, financial markets immediately started to react, where we saw the U.S. dollar, U.S. treasury yields and equities rise on expectations of pro-growth and potentially inflationary policies under a second Trump administration. While these movements may seem like short-term noise or daily headlines, they inform our long-term outlook and strategy.

In the U.S. we are closely monitoring updates to fiscal policy where potential tax cuts may drive inflationary pressures and influence central bank decision-making. U.S.-China relations are also top of mind as continued restrictions on outbound investments, particularly in artificial intelligence and semiconductors, and China’s move up the value chain, pose risks and opportunities.

Another geopolitical consideration is the increasing prevalence of "stroke of the pen" risk, where sudden policy decisions or regulatory changes create significant ripple effects for investors. This can include trade sanctions, export restrictions and policy shifts affecting energy transition investments, such as changes to the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) which can disrupt markets and industries.

The IMCO World View helps us assess these developments through a long-term lens. While political shifts introduce short-term uncertainty, understanding their structural implications ensures that we remain well-positioned to adapt and identify resilient investment opportunities.

What areas of opportunity or risk do you see emerging in 2025 and beyond?

Looking ahead, we see significant opportunities in themes driven by structural shifts. For example, technology-driven disruption and the need for innovation continues to transform industries, with advancements in artificial intelligence, clean energy and medical innovation creating new avenues for value generation. Spurred by industrial policy and decades of domestic under-investment, capital expenditure continues to pose opportunities to invest in the core infrastructure needed to support digital technology and the energy transition.

At the same time, geopolitical realignment may benefit industries that support regional trade and local production, as supply chains shift, and economies adapt to localized strategies – particularly if President Trump's threat of tariff hikes is actualized. Although still early days, his approach so far points to a potential shift away from friend-shoring in favour of onshoring.

On risk, heightened political uncertainty and policy divergence are areas we’re watching very closely, particularly as governments navigate competing economic and social priorities. Our ability to adapt to these trends, supported by the insights of the IMCO World View, ensures we remain resilient and proactive in identifying and navigating both risks and opportunities.

Learn more at https://www.imcoinvest.com/worldview