IMCO World View: Building Resilience Amid Global Shifts
Each year, IMCO's World View distills the structural forces shaping markets into a set of Themes and Implications, assessed for their momentum, accelerating, steady or decelerating. The research provides a disciplined framework to interpret change and strengthen long-term portfolio positioning.
In 2026, that framework focused on a defining shift: an accelerated reordering of economic power, capital flows and policy priorities set to fundamentally change the global investment landscape.
The 2026 World View describes a new era of global rebalancing. What is structurally different about this period compared to the past?
What makes this moment different from the past is not that policy is changing, it’s the speed and scale at which it’s happening.
The U.S. has moved decisively to impose broad tariffs, rethink capital flows and take a more interventionist role in shaping its economy. Policy cycles have always shifted over time, but what once unfolded gradually over years is now playing out in months. The pace itself is reshaping markets.
Since the U.S. sits at the centre of the global financial system, its actions reverberate everywhere. Countries are responding in real time, ramping up domestic investment, rebuilding supply chains and redesigning fiscal and trade frameworks to protect economic security.
We are moving away from an era defined by open trade and market-led globalization toward one marked by strategic competition and greater state involvement. For investors, this is more than short-term volatility. It represents a structural transition that is likely to have lasting implications for inflation, interest rates, currencies and how risk is priced- in across markets for years to come.
As the global economy moves from integration toward fragmentation, what market implications should investors anticipate?
In a market environment defined by greater divergence and less predictability, investors should anticipate heightened volatility and the need for greater portfolio flexibility.
As countries prioritize economic security over efficiency, supply chains are being rebuilt closer to home and production is shifting to meet national strategic goals. That shift is likely to carry lasting cost consequences. Tariffs that once created a temporary price adjustment could instead contribute to more persistent inflation if higher production costs remain embedded in the system.
At the same time, the extended period of consistently low interest rates has already passed. Diverging fiscal policies and growth trajectories across regions are creating a less synchronized global economy, increasing the likelihood of higher and more variable rate regimes.
Currency volatility also warrants attention. The U.S. dollar, long supported by strong capital inflows and its central role in global finance, has already experienced swings amid all the geopolitical uncertainty. As capital flows become more selective and policy paths diverge, adjusting for currency risk may be critical to returns.
In this setting, portfolio construction must evolve accordingly. Greater geographic diversification, exposure to real assets for inflation sensitivity, and disciplined risk management can help reduce concentration risk and build resilience amid structural shifts.
Where are the most compelling long-term growth opportunities emerging amid this structural shift?
Even in a more fragmented world, long-term growth drivers remain firmly in place. Technological transformation continues to reshape industries, particularly in artificial intelligence and the digital infrastructure that supports it. At the same time, rising energy demand and a renewed focus on domestic production are driving investment in logistics, health care and strategically important infrastructure, often at the intersection of public and private markets. As countries work to secure supply chains and rebuild productive capacity, assets tied to the physical economy, including energy, materials, commodities and AI-related infrastructure, are likely to benefit.
What advantages do private markets offer in today’s environment?
In a more volatile and policy-driven world, private assets with long-term investment horizons can provide greater diversification and stability to portfolios. Investors with time and patient capital on their side are not forced to react to every headline or policy shift. That distance allows capital to remain diversified, value-focused and anchored to structural drivers rather than short-term noise. Despite the recent slowdown in initial public offerings, merger and acquisition activity, and higher financing costs, we believe private assets will continue to play a steadying role within portfolios. They offer differentiated return streams, access to opportunities not available in public markets and a degree of insulation from short-term volatility. Institutions such as IMCO are well positioned to invest in private markets, given the scale, capital and operational expertise required to drive value.
How does the World View translate long-term research into strategic portfolio positioning?
The work of IMCO's Investment Research and Economics team, including the World View, plays a critical role in shaping IMCO's Strategic Asset Allocation. The value of this particular report lies in translating complex macroeconomic and geopolitical shifts into a clear, research-driven framework that strengthens the rationale behind asset allocation decisions. By highlighting the structural forces influencing global markets, the findings help provide our investment teams with a top-down approach, assessing investment opportunities from a long-term macro lens. It also complements our existing bottom-up approach, where individual companies and assets are assessed by our investors on their own merits, independent of broader market narratives. Together, these approaches create a more complete investment process, grounded in rigorous analysis.
Importantly, the relationship between IMCO’s research and investment teams is not one sided. Investment professionals actively contribute their market insights and sector expertise to the development of the World View each year, helping ensure its themes are grounded in actional insights tested against real world experience.
That shared foundation sharpens internal decision-making, challenges assumptions and reinforces disciplined investing practices across IMCO's multi-billion-dollar portfolio.